Wednesday, August 26, 2009

The Death of Abdul-Aziz al-Hakim - and Iraq's Future

While much of the US (and beyond) is mourning the passing of Sen. Ted Kennedy, another death promises to have even more impact, at least on US foreign relations and policies in the Middle East.

The passing of Abdul-Aziz al-Hakim, like that of Sen. Kennedy, was expected - both were suffering from terminal cancer - but al-Hakim's death opens a possibly tense leadership struggle atop the newly formed Iraqi political coalition, the Iraqi National Alliance [INA]. The AP story sets the scene pretty well:

The calm, soft-spoken al-Hakim, who died of lung cancer, was a kingmaker in Iraq's politics, working behind the scenes as the head of the country's biggest Shiite political party.

But for many in Iraq's Shiite majority, he was more than that — a symbol of their community's victory and seizure of power after decades of oppression under Saddam's Sunni-led regime. Al-Hakim's family led a Shiite rebel group against Saddam's rule from their exile in Iran, where he lived for 20 years, building close ties with Iranian leaders.

After Saddam's 2003 fall, al-Hakim hewed close to the Americans even while maintaining his alliance with Tehran, judging that the U.S. military was key to the Shiite rise.

Among Iraq's minority Sunnis, he was deeply distrusted, seen as a tool of Shiite Iran. Al-Hakim's outspoken support for Shiite self-rule in southern Iraq was seen by Sunnis and even some Shiites as an Iran-inspired plan to hand Tehran control of Iraq's Shiite heartland, home to most of its oil wealth.

His death comes at a time of political upheaval among Iraq's majority Shiites. The alliance of Shiite parties that al-Hakim helped forge and that has dominated the government since the first post-Saddam elections in 2005 has broken apart ahead of January parliamentary elections, pitting a coalition led by al-Hakim's party against another led by Shiite Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki.

As al-Hakim largely withdrew from the public arena due to his illness, his son and political heir Ammar has taken the lead in his party, the Supreme Iraqi Islamic Council.

Ammar's relative lack of experience has raised some questions over whether he will be able to hold the organization together at a sensitive time in Iraqi politics, but party leaders have insisted they would remain united behind the al-Hakim family. . . .

Al-Hakim was born in 1950 in Najaf to one of Shiite Islam's most prestigious clerical families. His father was Grand Ayatollah Muhsin al-Hakim, among the most influential Shiite scholars of his generation.

The younger al-Hakim studied theology in Najaf and married the daughter of Mohammed Hadi al-Sadr, member of another prominent Iraqi Shiite clan. After the 1970 death of his father, al-Hakim and his brothers became active in political opposition to Saddam's Baath Party.

He was jailed several times until he and most of the family fled to neighboring Iran in 1980 following a crackdown by Saddam on the Shiite opposition. In Iran, his older brother, Ayatollah Mohammed Baqir al-Hakim, founded the Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq, the forerunner of the SIIC. Abdul-Aziz headed the group's military wing, the Badr Brigade, which fought alongside Iranian forces during the 1980-1988 Iran-Iraq War.

The al-Hakim brothers returned to Iraq soon after the collapse of Saddam's government. On Aug. 29, 2003, a massive vehicle bomb exploded outside the Imam Ali Mosque in Najaf, killing Mohammed Baqir al-Hakim and more than 80 others. Abdul-Aziz stepped into the leadership of the Supreme Council.

The younger al-Hakim lacked his brother's charisma, religious standing or political acumen. But he proved a fast learner and able leader, quickly building the party into Iraq's largest Shiite political organization. He served on the leadership councils formed by the Americans. Then, in the 2005 parliament election, he forged a grand alliance of Shiite parties — backed by Iran's foremost Shiite cleric Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, which swept up a majority.

The coalition allied with the Kurds to form a government, though it constantly struggled to keep Sunni allies.

But signs of fraying among Shiites began to show in key Jan. 31 provincial elections, when members of the coalition competed against each other in the Shiite south. The Supreme Council suffered an embarrassing defeat in much of the south, while al-Maliki — head of the rival Dawa party — surged because of his popularity from security gains. The results were also seen as a voter backlash against religious parties as well as the Supreme Council's failure to improve public services in the south, where it had dominated since 2003.

Two days before al-Hakim's death, his SIIC joined with followers of anti-U.S. cleric Muqtada al-Sadr to form a new political alliance to contest January parliamentary elections. The new Iraqi National Alliance excluded al-Maliki, making overt the new disunity among Shiites.

The SIIC (or ISCI) has been one of the more powerful Shii religious parties in Iraq's recent politics, and would have been the featured element of the new INA, along with Muqtada al-Sadr's movement. If Abdul-Aziz's son Ammar isn't ready for the mantle of leadership, it raises the question of whether Muqtada will attempt to step up as leader of the INA if the al-Hakim family can't maintain its hold. Thing is, these two parties only a few years ago were mortal enemies, with their rival militias fighting street battles in Najaf. On the other hand, both parties seem now well nestled under Iran's wing. SIIC always was. And whereas Muqtada earlier (2003-2007) took a very Iraqi nationalist tack, in recent years he's been residing in Iran, where he has been ramping up his credentials as a religious authority (he evidently aspires to the rank of ayatollah). (Notably, though, he's been pursuing this education at the Iranian Shii seminary at Qom, which has been since 1980's Islamic Revolution in Iran a rival to the pre-eminent Shii seminary, Najaf, in Iraq.) The leadership debate within INA will bear watching.

As will INA's decision (at this point, at least) to exclude Iraqi PM Nuri al-Maliki (and his section of the Shii al-Dawa - "Mission" - party) from their coalition. Without INA's support, it's unlikely that Maliki can retain his PM-ship in the elections upcoming in January.

Of course, for the US, much of this news is not good. The al-Hakims have worked closely with the US occupation; Muqtada has reviled it from the very start. And whoever emerges on top, it's likely that as the US reduces its presence in Iraq, that country is indeed going to become - as a US intel official recently put it - "a colony of Iran."

No comments:


Blog Archive

Cluster map

Search This Blog

ICAHD - 18,000 Homes Campaign (large banner)