Wednesday, January 9, 2013

Syrians' Misery Gets Worse, with No End in Sight

Julian Lindley-French of the Atlantic Council with a dire prognosis for Syria's civil war:

Moscow’s admission last month that Assad may fall from power allied to Vice-President Farouk al-Sharaa assertion that no-one can win the Syrian civil war and that a transitional government is now the only way forward suggests the war is indeed at a tipping point. Sadly, no-one can expect peace soon. An enduring Syrian peace would only be possible with the consistent support of a unified international community and that simply does not exist. Even if it did would any state be prepared to commit land forces under UN mandate to secure the peace? Who would be prepared to offer the huge resources vital to re-settle peaceably displaced populations, promote peaceful transition and re-build a smashed Syria?

If peace miraculously came tomorrow with the fall of Assad Syrians would face a vacuum created by a hopelessly split international community. Saving Syria from Assad is but the first step. The Syrian civil war is not simply about the transfer of power from a national minority to a majority it is about the future geopolitical shape of the Middle East. Without real support from us all Syria will continue to be a danger to itself and its neighbors in a very dangerous region.


Meanwhile, thousands of Syrian DPs face a horrific humanitarian situation.  The recent winter storm that blew away tents and left people shivering and unsheltered has compounded the misery of ever-spreading and deepening hungry that aid organizations lack the wherewithal to alleviate.

Nonetheless, some of Syria's neighbors continue to accept and shelter refugees.  Israel, meanwhile, is building a fence.

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