Sunday, September 11, 2011

Palestinian State: A Saudi Warning to the US

In the NYT, Saudi prince Turki al-Faisal lays it on the line: If the US votes against recognition of a Palestinian state at the UN this month, US- Saudi relations will change, much for the worse.  Saudi Arabia will go its own way . . . and Saudi cooperation with the US in its effort to contain Iranian ambitions in the Middle East can no longer be assured.  

Today, there is a chance for the United States and Saudi Arabia to contain Iran and prevent it from destabilizing the region. But this opportunity will be squandered if the Obama administration’s actions at the United Nations force a deepening split between our two countries.  

This may be a rather empty threat.  The things the Saudis fear most in the Middle East are the emerging pro-democracy movements, and the emergence of Iran as a regional power that would promote and defend Shiism and its adherents in Lebanon, Iraq, Bahrain, and elsewhere, versus the staunchly conservative Sunni Wahhabi orientation of the Saudi monarchy.  But since 1945, the US has been able, for the most part, to rely on Saudi cooperation (or at least acquiescence), largely because the Saudis depend upon the US military's security umbrella to protect Saudi oil production.  Perhaps the Saudis feel able to call the US's bluff on that score - that no matter the threats the Saudis might make, the US's strategic interests commit it to ensuring oil production and transport in the Persian Gulf.

Assessing 9-11. Ten Years After

Keeping up with - much less summarizing - all of the 10-years-later retrospectives and assessments on the attacks of 11 September 2001 is truly impossible.  Suffice to say that they have been abundant and diverse, ranging from the preening American exceptionalism of Joe Lieberman and Charles Krauthammer to much more thoughtful and sensitive perspectives at sites like The National Interest and Foreign Policy.

But if you had to choose just one site to visit, you could do worse than the summer issue of Democracy, which features superb essays from exceedingly thoughtful and informed commentators like Fawaz Gerges, Anne Marie Slaughter, and Robert Wright.  But for a perspective that delves especially well into how our response to 9-11 tapped into our primal existential concerns and were, in many ways, quite predictable from the standpoint of what's referred to as terror management theory, the essay by Jessica Stern is an exceptional read.  I'm taking the liberty of posting it here, in its entirety:


Ten years after 9/11, we cannot help but ask ourselves: What have we gained? What have we lost?

It is easy to tally our victories. The decimation of Al Qaeda’s leadership, including the killing of Osama bin Laden himself. The removal of a brutal dictator from power in Iraq. The thwarting of numerous attempted attacks on America and the West. Al Qaeda’s failure to mount another attack on the scale of September 11 anywhere in the world.

But our losses are more amorphous. They are best expressed, perhaps, in images. The crash of planes into a steel and glass tower, followed by the sight of tiny figures leaping, as if in a dream of flight, to murderously concrete ground. A symbol of America’s dominance and optimism reduced to toxic rubble. The end of an era when we thought we were invulnerable, and when we thought we were better than the rest.

The puzzling images have piled up since then. The photograph of Lynndie England, a Future Farmer of America, holding a naked Iraqi prisoner by a leash. Why naked? Why the leash? The bloodied faces of innocent children, children we had aimed to save. The images of soldiers weeping for what they had suffered, or for the suffering they had caused. The empty eyes of returning veterans, their spirits broken, as if they had lost their capacity to feel pain. When we think back to before, it hurts. Our optimism. The booming economy. The end of history.

It was impossible to believe that a tiny band of brainwashed thugs could have pulled off such a strike at a center of American power. And it was humiliating—so we lashed out at an Enemy. Never mind that it was the wrong enemy. Never mind that the weapons we used—bombs and tanks—were the wrong ones. We lashed out where we could, with the weapons we had available. In retrospect, it is clear we fell into a trap. Al Qaeda hoped to provoke America into direct military confrontation with a Muslim country, which it predicted would “expand the jihadi current.” And, for a time, it did.

War almost always results in foreseeable, yet unforeseen, atrocities. That is why when a president puts his nation’s youth at risk in war, he should be certain that there is a high likelihood of success, and that the anticipated gains exceed the likely collateral damage. There is no official figure for the number of Iraqis killed in the war, but Pentagon documents released by WikiLeaks show that U.S. military logs recorded 109,032 violent deaths between 2004 and 2009, some 66,000 of which were civilians. Since 9/11, nearly 6,000 U.S. troops have died in the wars on terrorism. Economists Linda Bilmes and Joseph Stiglitz have estimated that the total cost of the war in Iraq alone, including its impact on the economy, is at least $3 trillion. We face a long-term future of debt and deficit, which partisans attribute to the mistakes of the other side. No one seems to attribute it to our panic in the wake of 9/11, the trillions invested in our need to lash out.

There are emotional costs too. Service members who volunteer for war know that they are putting their lives on the line. But they and their family members may not realize that death for service members can come in unexpected ways. For example, it can come from what the military now calls “moral injury”—the shame that troops feel from having participated in or witnessed the death of civilians abroad. The Department of Defense reports 1,917 suicides between the years 2001 and 2009 among active duty military personnel, some of whom were no doubt burdened by moral injury. During that same period, the suicide rate across the services rose sharply, from 10.3 per hundred thousand service personnel, to 18.4. Suicide in the U.S. military has consistently been reported as a leading cause of mortality over the past decade. For veterans, the figures are even higher. More than 6,000 veterans take their lives every year, representing about 20 percent of American suicides annually. A study by the National Bureau of Economic Research says that the cost of treating soldiers’ psychological wounds from combat-induced post-traumatic stress disorder will amount to between $1.5 billion to $2.7 billion.

We did what we had to do in order to survive. Or so we thought. The nature of the threat made it imperative for authorities to focus on thwarting attacks before they occurred, rather than just responding to them. That, in turn, prompted us to curtail some of our citizens’ civil liberties. We felt compelled to torture suspects, or to look the other way when others practiced torture. Consequentialist arguments were made, and for many, they were persuasive. Nonetheless, the ethical compromises we made as a nation have changed us.

Was any of this predictable? It turns out that it was. The Pulitzer Prize-winning cultural anthropologist Ernest Becker wrote that humans are the only living beings forced to live with the knowledge of their own demise, at least as far as we know. That knowledge creates what the psychoanalyst Otto Rank and others called an existential anxiety. The best way to reduce this anxiety is to fantasize that we can become immortal through acts of symbolic creation—through our work, our religious or political affiliations, our culture. In recent decades, experimental psychologists Thomas Pyszczynski, Sheldon Solomon, and Jeff Greenberg developed terror management theory, which posits that all human behavior is motivated by subconscious terror of death, and the need to manage that anxiety through symbolic creations. We know, and are horrified, by our very corporeality, these psychologists tell us. As they put it in In the Wake of 9/11 (2003), we are

 

sentient pieces of bleeding, defecating, urinating, vomiting, exfoliating, perspiring, fornicating, menstruating, ejaculating, flatulence-producing, expectorating meat—that may ultimately be no more enduring or significant than cockroaches or cucumbers. The continuous awareness of these circumstances within which we live, faced with inevitable death, compounded by the recognition of tragedy magnified by our carnal knowledge makes us humans vulnerable to potentially overwhelming terror at virtually any given moment. Yet people rarely experience this existential terror directly. What saves us is culture. Cultures provide ways to view the world—worldviews—that “solve” the existential crisis engendered by the awareness of death.

 

The theory also posits that when people are reminded of their own deaths, they will more readily enforce their cultural worldviews. If their cultural worldview is xenophobic, nationalistic, or moralistic, they are prone to become more so. On a more political level, when Americans are reminded of their mortality, they view those who praise America in a more positive light, and those who criticize America in a more negative light. Patriotism is likely to increase, and punitive actions—including violence and war against those who criticize our worldviews—become more seductive. Hundreds of experiments have confirmed these findings.

Thus, U.S. leaders responded to the 9/11 strikes very much the way terror management theory would predict. We were reminded of our mortality. We lashed out. The costs for our nation have been inestimably high.

What now? The good news is that when we remind people of the good—or of anything that increases their self-esteem—before reminding them of their mortality, the negative impact is greatly reduced. And when respondents are reminded of their most important values—such as tolerance or their commitment to individual rights—mortality salience increases these commitments. If we are to prevail in the war on terrorism, we need to remember that the freedoms we demand come with great responsibilities. For one thing, those freedoms make us more vulnerable to terrorism. And these responsibilities involve not just fighting terrorists, but even more important, managing our own terror. It’s only by doing so as individuals that we can maintain our collective commitment to fundamental rights and tolerance.


 


Obama Toughening Up?

Both Tom Friedman and Maureen Dowd comment in today's NY Times on Mr. Obama's recent job-plans speech - that BO spoke forcefully, that the GOP leadership in Congress (both Boehner and Cantor) responded as if they were were willing to work with him (as Dowd suggests, though, that was probably in response to recent polls suggesting that GOP obstructionism is taking a toll on their support.

I wish I could believe in the GOP charade.  But I also wish that both sides could take the advice proffered by the president of Starbucks, as recorded by Friedman:
The people in Washington should reread the Pledge of Allegiance and look up ‘indivisible.’ ”

Saturday, September 10, 2011

Israel's Escalating Isolation

From the Israeli press, via War in Context, a report that Israeli foreign minister Avigdor Lieberman intends to go after Turkey by

  • consulting with the head of the Armenian lobby in the US as a step toward encouraging Congress to pass a resolution condemning Turkey's refusal to acknowledge the Armenian genocide during World War I
  • providing encouragement and assistance to the Kurdish nationalist/terrorist group the PKK, with which Turkey is now in a virtual state of war.

As Paul Woodward notes as WiC,

The PKK is a “U.S. Government Designated Foreign Terrorist Organizations” in the State Department’s current list of foreign terrorist organizations [2]. In the event that Israel starts providing the PKK with weapons, Israel itself will need to be considered for inclusion in the State Department’s list of State Sponsors of Terrorism. Were it to be listed, this would mean that it would be illegal for the United States to continue providing military aid and economic assistance to Israel.

I'm sure that our AIPAC-bought Congress will be quick to consider an Armenian genocide resolution, and I also suspect that as they paint Turkey's leader Mr. Erdogan as the newest incarnation of Islamist/terrorist/anti-Israel "evil," they may opt to take the PKK off the list of foreign terror organizations.  Except that Turkey will have something to say about that.  Turkey only this week agreed to host a missile-defense radar system that the US has been pushing as a poke in the eye of Iran.  They have the option of changing their minds.

And on top of the news that the Israeli embassy staff has fled Cairo in the wake of demonstrators' takeover of the building, and that the nations of the UN General Assembly will almost certainly grant observer status to a new state of Palestine (which opens up new avenues - such as the International Criminal Court - with which to pressure and further isolate Israel), it's obvious that Israel's isolation in the region is worsening by the day.  Israel might be able to fix its rupture with Turkey by giving Mr. Erdogan the apology he has demanded for the IDF's killing of nine Turkish citizens on the Mavi Marmara, which was intercepted while trying to run the Israeli blockade of Gaza several months ago; but Mr. Netanyahu has proclaimed, very publicly and very emotionally, that no such apology will be forthcoming.  The next flotilla to depart from Turkey to run the blockade will be escorted by Turkish warships.   Meanwhile, Turkey is very publicly courting the Egyptian military government.  The generals may not be buying all that Mr. Erdogan wants to sell, but the fact of the matter is that Erdogan is a hero on the very angry Egyptian street.  They would reject Erdogan's embrace at their own peril.

Someone needs to fold; and Turkey seems to have the better cards, and the regional momentum.  Israel . . . not so much.  Meanwhile, the US can do little more than implore, wring its hands, and - as we noted above - take rash actions in Congress that will likely keep the AIPAC campaign funds rolling in, even as history passes the US by.


Friday, September 9, 2011

Joe Lieberman's Paean to Post 9-11 U--S--A!!

OK, it's Joe Lieberman, so I guess it was to be expected - but his paean to American resolve and fortitude post 9-11 - and his dismissal of any talk about a lost decade - confirm my judgement of him as someone whose statements on US policy need no longer be taken seriously. Stuff like the US military turned the tide of the wars in both Iraq and Afghanistan?! He, John McCain, Lindsey Graham . . . the song that never ends: the Surge worked, We achieved Victory in Iraq, etc., etc. Furthermore, proclaims Joe:

Americans have proven adaptive and dogged in our prosecution of this fight, pioneering new capabilities and tactics -- from stunningly precise unmanned drones to a brilliant new counterinsurgency doctrine -- that have enabled our forces to outflank our enemies in this very unconventional war. Simply put, in the 10 years since 9/11, the U.S. has built the most capable and lethal counterterrorism forces in human history.

Except that those drones have been anything but stunningly precise. Our use of them has been indiscriminate enough to have enraged thousands of people across Afghanistan, Pakistan, Yemen - and we have used them to engage in what can justifiably be termed an illegal war of assassination that, often enough to matter, has allowed our joystick aces at their computer panels to "take out" people who were guilty of nothing more than looking suspicious to some observer.

Joe's pals in the Netanyahu government are very familiar indeed with such assassination - the Israeli euphemism for them is "targeted killings" - something with which they have gone after Hamas in Gaza - and wiped out bystanders in the process. And speaking of Hamas, Joe, you claim that Hamas has American blood on their hands? Pray tell, when exactly was that?

And as for that brilliant counterinsurgency doctrine? Haven't you noticed, Joe? It didn't really settle anything in Iraq. And as for Afghanistan . . . well, last we heard, it's really not amounted to much. The Taliban are rooted as deeply as ever; they'll still be there long after we're gone. It's all about counter-terrorism now, Joe. What do you think those drones are for? And the SEALs? And how come you said nothing about those lovely night raids that have earned us Americans all those kudos from those Afghan villagers?

Joe's blather along these lines is bad enough in itself . . . but what makes his stuff truly unforgivable is the blitheness with which he insists that the Pentagon's budget must be held sacred; that we must all steel ourselves for a fight that may go on and on and on.

current geopolitical realities do not justify a claim of victory or a sense of closure or complacency about the worldwide war that Islamist extremists continue waging against us. This is not a moment when the United States can unilaterally declare a holiday from history. To stay safe at home, it is more important than ever for Americans to remain engaged abroad and -- despite mounting budgetary pressures -- to make the necessary investments to keep our military the best in the world and ensure the other instruments of our national power are well-resourced and strong.
As a matter of math, we will not work our way out of our national indebtedness or create the new jobs we need if we decimate our national security budget. Doing so will jeopardize our security here at home and destabilize the broader international order on which our domestic economy and prosperity depend.. . . .
The true test of our national leaders, therefore, is not their ability to perfectly predict what will come next for America but our capacity to remain prepared as best we can, militarily and otherwise, for a range of possibilities, and to adapt, as a nation, when the unexpected invariably occurs. It is especially important to remember that the wars we are required to fight are rarely the ones we predict or plan for. Yet it is profoundly encouraging to look back and see how well we have adapted to fight the current war with the Islamist terrorists who attacked us unexpectedly on 9/11.

In other words, throw more hundreds of billions at General Dynamics, Lockheed, et al.

For we are in the war that never ends.


Will the Egyptian Street Force the Military's Hand?

AP reports (in NY Times) that about 30 Egyptian protesters broke into the Israeli embassy in Cairo and dumped documents out the windows. Meanwhile, hundreds of others tore down the embassy's security wall, with security forces evidently deciding not to intervene.

This is going to present the current military rulers (the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces) with a dilemma, especially if (as most indications suggest) they want to maintain some modicum of harmonious relations with Israel.  Sooner or later, those protesters may force their hand.

And that may indeed be sooner, as in this month, when the issue of Palestinian statehood comes before the UN.  Israel and the US oppose it, but a proposal to give the Palestinians recognition as a non-member state will almost certainly pass a vote in the General Assembly.  But it evidently will be brought first before the Security Council, where the US in all likelihood will veto it.

What happens in Cairo then, at the US embassy?

Why Most Iraqis Will Be Happy to See the US Gone

The NYT's John Burns reports on a British commission's findings about British troops' horrific treatment of Iraqi prisoners in Basra shortly after the invasion in 2003.  Robert Fisk - who knows both Iraq and the people affected by all this much better than does Burns - has an even more incisive take, including the fact that the father of a young man brutally beaten to death by the "Tommies" was a member of the Iraqi police, and that his son - before he was killed - has told his father that he'd witnessed British soldiers busting open a hotel safe and then stuffing their pockets with the contents (which was why, the father-policeman believes, the Brits killed his son). 

Burns also notes that when the Abu Ghraib scandal broke, British officials commented that the British army - as opposed to the inexperienced, undisciplined Yanks who brutalized Iraq detainees at Abu Ghraib prison - had a long tradition of dealing with insurrections (Northern Ireland, for example) as well as dealing with Arabs, given Britain's long colonial involvement in the Middle East, and could be trusted not to resort to such tactics.

So much for that.

But as I enter a new semester of teaching about the history of the Middle East - including a course on the long history of Iraq and Iran - I have to remember that the 18- to 22-year-olds who dominate that class were essentially still little kids when Abu Ghraib happened; were probably oblivious to it then; and now have at most only a dim awareness of what it was.  For Iraqis, though, the memory has been seared more deeply - and the news of the British commission's report is likely to pick open whatever scabs that may have begun to congeal over the wounds.

Reports have been rife over the last couple of months about how the US has been pressuring the Iraqi government to allow perhaps 10,000 US troops to stay there after 31 December. A number of Iraqi commentators - especially among the Sunni Arabs and the Kurds - have insisted that US troops will need to stay if Iraq is not to descend again into civil war.  But the broader popular sentiment - especially among Iraq's Arab Shia - seems to be that all US forces need to leave by the end-of-year deadline.

The new British report will only increase that sentiment.

And as we embark upon a weekend of flag-waving and chest-thumping as we commemorate the 10-year anniversary of the 9-11 attacks, we in the US need to remember that, in the view of most Iraqis, whatever little good that might have come from the US-Anglo invasion of their country in 2003 - an invasion that was predicated largely on the need for payback and pre-emptive deterrence after 9-11 - was vastly outweighed by the brutality and humiliation that it brought.

The Upcoming UN Vote on Recognizing a Palestinian State

Rami Khouri's new, customarily eloquent piece on the upcoming UN General Assembly vote on recognizing a Palestinian state makes the case forcibly: the US and Israel are terrified of losing control over a "peace process" that has done nothing for the cause of peace, not to mention justice:

The argument that Israelis and Americans make most often against the UN move is that it would detract from attempts to resolve the Palestinian-Israeli conflict via direct bilateral negotiations. They say this with a straight face, and seem to be serious, though their incredulous argument flies forcefully in the face of history and reality.

The fact is that the United States and Israel have largely had their way in defining how Palestinian-Israeli negotiations have proceeded since the 1991 Madrid peace talks and the subsequent 2003 Oslo Accords. Israel has dominated diplomatic engagements because it controls events on the ground with its occupation army, siege tactics, and settler-colonizers, and holds the Palestinians hostage via its controls of their land, water, air, trade, security and financial resources.

The United States has dominated the mediating role in the on-and-off bilateral negotiations, and has generated a track record of consecutive and cumulative failures that must go down in history as among humankind’s greatest examples of diplomatic incompetence.

Historians will one day recount whether this is due to amateurism or to strong pro-Israel bias that totally negates the US’ mediator role.

In either case, bilateral negotiations as we have known them have no chance of success on the basis of the current balance of power and with American mediation favoring Israel so sharply.

I suspect the real reason the United States and Israel so vehemently oppose the Palestinian move at the UN is that it represents a rare step to seek political movement on the Arab-Israeli issue that is not totally controlled by Tel Aviv and Washington, but instead uses international law and the global consensus of nations as a reference point for diplomacy.

This would be such a worrying precedent for Israel and the United States that they are using all possible tools and threats to kill it before it moves ahead any further.

This is also why the same United States and Israel reacted with such hysteria to the Goldstone Report process when that happened last year. 

They simply cannot allow any political deliberation or diplomatic process related to Israel and Palestine to occur outside the context of Israeli priorities and the obsequious American response to all that Israel wishes, which is enforced through the formidable powers of the pro-Israel lobby groups in Washington and at local levels across the United States (as the current “I love Zion” jamboree by most Republican presidential candidates and the US Congress attests again).

So let us not be fooled by the diversionary debates about the largely symbolic September vote on Palestinian statehood at the UN. 

The real issue is whether the history of Palestine and Israel will be shaped by law and the determination of the global community of nations to treat both sides equally, or by the muscle of a robust Zionism and its American diplomatic partner that resembles a ventriloquist’s dummy more than an independent actor - let alone an impartial mediator.

Thursday, September 8, 2011

US and Israel Double Down on their own Isolation

So now we have GOP House Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen hammering Obama for his supposed diplo-speak - and for not coming out and "just saying no" to the upcoming Palestinian effort to achieve recognition as a non-member state by the UN General Assembly.  Her hope is to get Congressional approval of legislation that would retaliate against any UN organization that embraces the Palestinians' cause.

This, even as most the rest of the UN member states are lining up to vote for Palestinian recognition, despite the ongoing arm-twisting by US, Israeli, and even German diplomats in hopes of getting Mr. Abbas to stand down and once again place his people's hopes and trust in the hands of a US-led effort to restart peace talks - which, as we all know, have produced SO MUCH progress in recent years.

Who the hell do they think they're kidding?  To channel John McEnroe: You can't be serious!!

While Ileana and the rest of her AIPAC-purchased pals in Congress sink ever more deeply into their dreamworld where the US still holds the best cards and calls the shots (and where the Israeli leadership acts as if American support is still supposed to be a game-changer), the people who really hold the cards are signaling that there are some new dealers at the table.  Turkey is thumbing its nose at Israel's continued efforts (and the US's continued support of them) to enforce its blockade of Gaza, declaring today that any future flotillas from Turkey bearing aid for Gaza will be escorted by Turkish warships.  Egyptians are making it ever clearer that business as usual with Israel is no longer acceptable, especially as it relates to Israel's occupation of the West Bank and perpetual denial of Palestinians' nationalist aspirations - that the 1979 treaty may be becoming a dead letter.

Ileana and her pals can huff and puff all they want.  The US has made itself irrelevant.  Meanwhile, a "new Middle East" is being born.  It's just not the kind about whose birth pangs Condi waxed euphoric 5 years ago.

Sunday, September 4, 2011

Looming Disaster in the West Bank

The Palestinians are about to make their case in the UN General Assembly; the vote will surely go heavily in their favor; West Bank Palestinians will march to once again assert their right to nationhood.

And the Netanyahu government, in its infinite wisdom, has chosen to stockpile water cannons, tear gas, and such; to provide additional training to the military and police - but most worrisome, to arm the West Bank settlers with tear-gas and similar deterrents.  These are, of course, the same cowboy settlers who tend to walk around with Kalashnikovs over the shoulders, taunting and abusing local Palestinians, poisoning their wells, tearing down their olive trees.  Now, with the permission of the Israeli government (and the implicit complicity of the US), these hotheads are ramping up for a confrontation:

In coordination with the military, each Israeli settlement has
identified a "response line" around its perimeter, said Shlomo Vaknin,
security officer for a settler umbrella group known as the Yesha
Council. Should Palestinians cross that line, the military will shoot at
marchers' feet or in the air. If soldiers are not on hand,
responsibility to react will fall on the settlements' civilian guards,
Vaknin said.

In response, the Association for Civil Rights in
Israel sent a complaint last week to the military's advocate general
claiming the settler training amounts to inciting vigilante violence
against unarmed civilians exercising their right to protest. The army
did not immediately comment on the complaint.

Mike Guzafsky, 47, a
settler who trains guard and attack dogs for settlements, noted that
the army appeared to have been caught by surprise last month when
militants crossed the Egypt-Israel border and ambushed vehicles in
southern Israel, killing eight people. He said he got 100 requests for
dogs ahead of September, far above the usual.

"What happens," he
said, speaking at the West Bank settlement of Elazar, if the army "is
once again caught off guard when 500 hostile Arabs are trying to
penetrate a settlement with knives and guns?"

Michael Ben-Ari, an
Israeli lawmaker associated with the extremist fringe of the settlement
movement, issued a pamphlet to settler leaders encouraging settlers to
match every unarmed Palestinian march with an Israeli one.

"No
more soldiers and border police against groups of Arab children and
women. Instead, children versus children, youth versus youth, and women
versus women — this is how we will destroy the September effect," he
wrote.

This could get out of hand in a heartbeat - and if it does, the Egyptian public will be demanding that their military government do something about it; Mr. Assad in Syria may be provided with a new tool with which to rally support around himself; and Mr. Erdogan in Turkey (who is prepared to challenge Israel's blockade of Gaza in the ICC, and reportedly will visit Gaza in the weeks ahead) will come down even harder on the Israeli government - and on a US that stands aside as Jewish settlers "defend" settlements that were illegal to begin with.

And Perry, Bachmann, and Israel's hallelujah chorus in the US Congress will demand that Obama stand with Israel - even if that means standing by as the IDF and settlers armed to the teeth slaughter dozens of Palestinian Arabs.

America in the Wrong Direction

Earlier today I posted some comments about the wrongheadedness of US policy concerning the UN's imminent recognition of Palestinian statehood.  The WaPo has a story today about one of the prinicipal reasons for it: the rise of evangelical Christianity as a factor in presidential politics.

I am old enough to remember vividly the stir, and the unease, occasioned by Jimmy Carter's revelation ca. 1976 that he was a "born-again Christian."  Could anyone have imagined then that we'd now reach a point where the leading candidate for the GOP presidential nomination would have presided (just prior to announcing his candidacy) over a "prayer meeting" where thousands would gather to implore the Almighty - and specifically under his form as their believed "Son of God" - to bless and guide the USA?  More worryingly, could we have imagined then that those thousands would come together - and Texas governor Rick Perry would convene them - in Jesus' name?  As the WaPo report notes:

 There was no symbolic nod to other American faiths. No rabbi or Roman Catholic priest was among the evangelical speakers. It was a rare, full-on embrace of one religious tradition in the glare of a presidential contest.

One of the headlined supporters of this event, pastor John Hagee, has referred to the Roman Catholic church as the "great whore." One of Perry's chief opponents, Michelle Bachmann, is cut from the same cloth, having only recently abjured her membership in the Wisconsin Evangelical Lutheran synod, whose website states that the Roman Catholic papacy is the anti-Christ.  Fortunately for the country, Bachmann is not a truly viable candidate.  She has little record to run on in terms of governing, as opposed to spouting off.  (Of course, one could have said much the same about Mr. Obama only a few years ago.)

Pastor Hagee, by the way, is also the founder of CUFI (Christians United for Israel), perhaps the leading Christian Zionist organization in the US. And, of course, both Perry and Bachmann have declared their unstinting love and loyalty for the state of Israel - Perry even going so far (in his coming-out speech) as to denounce Obama for his alleged arrogance in trying to impose new boundaries in the Middle East.  He was referring, of course, to Obama's speech declaring that the 1967 borders between Israel and the Palestinians ought to be the basis of an agreement between them.  Perry seems to have forgotten that Jesus-thing about "blessed are the peacemakers."  Not that Obama has accomplished that, mind you; but at least he seems to approach the problem with some semblance of fairness.  Perry's fans would surely insist that Israel be allowed to finalize the occupation of the West Bank (and, if necessary, the extermination of Gaza).  I mean, God gave all that land to Israel, didn't He?  I mean, it's in the Bible.  (And if you think I'm joking, consider the case of the senator from Texas's neighbor Oklahoma - and fellow neanderthal when it comes to Middle East foreign policy - James Inhofe, who literally quoted from the Bible on the floor of the US Senate in defense of Israel's policies.)

The fact of the matter is that the foundering US economy has the Obama presidency on the ropes - enough so that Obama's team, which once regarded him as undefeatable by the likes of a Bachmann or a Perry, is no longer making that assumption.  

Be very afraid.


US's Pathetic Efforts to Stop Recognition of a Palestinian State

For months, it's been well known that the Palestinian leadership is planning to have recognition of a Palestinian state put to a vote in the UN General Assembly.  For months, the Netanyahu government has been gearing up a diplomatic offensive to try to convince any and all to vote against this.  For months, it's been obvious that the Israelis didn't have a chance in hell of accomplishing that.

And for months, the Obama team - led by Israel's best lawyer, the seemingly ineradicable Dennis Ross, playing the role of fair and honest broker - has been agonizing over this predicament, imploring its allies to oppose the Palestinians, and now - as this piece in the NYT reports - working feverishly to find just-the-right-words of an agreement that will forestall the Palestinians' resolve by convincing them that, yes, you can indeed negotiate with Netanyahu . . . . We can find a way, construct a timetable of steps, and meetings, and more steps, and we can meet again.

Senior officials said the administration wanted to avoid not only a veto but also the more symbolic and potent General Assembly vote that would leave the United States and only a handful of other nations in the opposition. The officials, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss diplomatic maneuverings, said they feared that in either case a wave of anger could sweep the Palestinian territories and the wider Arab world at a time when the region is already in tumult. President Obama would be put in the position of threatening to veto recognition of the aspirations of most Palestinians or risk alienating Israel and its political supporters in the United States.   . . . .

Efforts to head off the Palestinian diplomatic drive have percolated all summer but have taken on urgency as the vote looms in the coming weeks. “It’s not clear to me how it can be avoided at the moment,” said Ghaith al-Omari, a former Palestinian negotiator who is now executive director of the American Task Force on Palestine in Washington. “An American veto could inflame emotions and bring anti-American sentiment to the forefront across the region.” . . .  The State Department late last month issued a formal diplomatic message to more than 70 countries urging them to oppose any unilateral moves by the Palestinians at the United Nations. The message, delivered by American ambassadors to their diplomatic counterparts in those countries, argued that a vote would destabilize the region and undermine peace efforts, though those are, at least for now, moribund.

Two administration officials said that the intent of the message was to narrow the majority the Palestinians are expected to have in the General Assembly. They said that and the new peace proposal — to be issued in a statement by the Quartet, the diplomatic group focused on the Middle East comprising the United States, Russia, the European Union and the United Nations — could persuade potential supporters to step back from a vote on recognition, and thus force Mr. Abbas to have second thoughts.

Please, Mr. Abbas, . . . don't buy it.  You've been taken down this road too many times already: sham summits, nice photo-ops, firm handshakes . . . but the Israelis keep expanding those West Bank settlements, and they keep inserting settlers into East Jerusalem, and they keep insisting that you recognize a "Jewish state" that has a 20-percent Arab population, even while they refuse to accede to a truly viable Palestinian state.

Don't buy it, Mr. Abbas.  You've got them all very worried.  And why shouldn't they be?

And when it's all said and done, when the General Assembly agrees - by a resoundingly lopsided vote - to affirm the existence of a Palestinian state, to affirm the legitimacy of Palestinian nationhood, the joy and pride that you and your people will feel will be equaled only by the chagrin of Israel and the US as their isolation on the wrong side of history deepens.  Mr. Obama will wring his hands and speak eloquently of his disappointment, and of how, no matter what, the United States will always have a rock-solid bond with the people of Israel.  His Republican opponents will call down the wrath of Jehovah on the Godless nations of the UN, and on Mr. Obama - that closet Muslim - himself.

Pay them no mind.  The United States has already inscribed its main chapters in the book of history.  It's well into its epilogue.

The future lies with you.

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