Pakistan's Future after the Assassination of Salman Taseer

Christian Caryl has posted an eloquent, insightful essay at the NYRB blog, in which he claims that Pakistan has perhaps reached a fateful tipping point, of no going back.  He concludes:

I am not a Pakistani. But I can’t help feeling that the killing of Salman Taseer is a calamity for everyone who lives in the country—including the people who are now strewing flowers at the feet of the man who allegedly pulled the trigger. Those who support the takfiri worldview don’t seem to understand that this is an ideology that cedes the definition of “true Islam” to the self-declared defenders of religion—and that these definitions shift according to the political wind, to selfish agendas and narrow factional interests, rather than to the uncorrupted dictates of faith. And that means that those who consider themselves right-minded believers today can easily find themselves on the wrong end of a Kalashnikov tomorrow.

The West, and especially the United States, should also take notice. It is time for policymakers in Washington to understand that Pakistan is not simply a vexing sideshow to the war in Afghanistan. Pakistan—populous, chaotic, and nuclear-armed—needs to be taken seriously in its own right. An imploding Pakistan promises immense pain and turmoil to itself and the world at large. Let’s hope that this realization doesn’t come too late.

Muqtada serves notice to Maliki

It might fairly be said that Iraq's post-invasion history has turned a new page with the return of Muqtada al-Sadr to Iraq.  As Tony Shadid and others have noted, he is perhaps the only Iraqi political leader with as much grassroots support as Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki, which means that if Maliki's government doesn't perform, Muqtada - even though his party is an important piece in Maliki's coalition - could be the focus of a powerful opposition movement.  And in his speech today, Muqtada indeed served notice that he and his followers will stand with Maliki's government if it comes through:"The Iraqi government has been formed," he said. "If it serves the Iraqi people, and provides services, we will stand by it, not against it.

Of course, Muqtada's statement potentially leaves it largely in Muqtada's hands to be the "decider" (to channel W's terminology) about how well the government is indeed serving the people.  That entails several items high on Muqtada's list:

getting basic services like water, sewage, and electrical systems up and running, especially to the urban poor of Baghdad and the south who are Muqtada's base of popular support

getting the Americans out by the agreed-upon end-of-2011 deadline.  Maliki's return was not good news for the US, which dearly wants to maintain a significant military presence there for the sake of "stability" (=American-speak for blocking any increase in Iran's influence, and for preserving Petraeus' "victory" there).  Expect Muqtada to be adamant about this.  If Maliki waffles, Muqtada and his followers could bolt, and Muqtada's Promised Day brigades could make life miserable for US forces and for the Iraqi army (many of whose members, let's remember, are former members of the Shia sectarian militias associated with Maliki's al-Da'wa party and the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq, with whom Sadrist forces have done battle in the past).

Muqtada styles himself as an Iraqi religious nationalist, but some believe that Maliki sweetened his appeal to Muqtada by assuring his party the governorship of four of Iraq's southern directorates, thus providing him a territorial base where he is already very popular, and where presumably his dictates will have immense authority.  To the extent that Maliki might interfere with Muqtada's authority there (and remember, in 2008 Maliki sent Iraqi forces against the Sadrists in Basra and in Baghdad's Sadr City), Muqtada might declare that a failure by Maliki to serve the Iraqi people.

Finally, another major attack by Sunni jihadists ("al-Qaeda") against Iraq Shia, especially if they occur in Sadr City, will give Muqtada yet another pretext for declaring that Maliki's government has failed the Iraqi people.

The weeks ahead are going to be critical for the stability of Maliki's government.

And if the security surrounding Muqtada somehow breaks down or is infiltrated, and Muqtada himself is attacked (or worse) . . . .

McCain calls out Tom Friedman

. . . as reported in The Daily Caller.  McCain continues to push the idea that the US "won" in Iraq, even as Muqtada al-Sadr, one of the most powerful and anti-American political leaders in that country, just returned there - rather triumphantly - from Iran.

No, senator.  The "winners" in Iraq are Iran, and (as Tony Shadid's recent piece makes abundantly clear) Turkey.

And, by the way, why should anyone take seriously the expertise and "wisdom" of a man foolish and thoughtless enough to risk placing Sarah Palin a heartbeat away from the presidency of the U.S.?

Netanyahu Wants Obama to Release Israeli Spy Jonathan Pollard

As reported by the WaPo.  The request has been widely expected, with the understanding that Obama might grant it in return for some significant "concessions" on Israel's illegal settlement-building in the West Bank.

Netanyahu won't - and can't, from a domestic political standpoint or his own "Greater Israel" principles - make any meaningful concessions.  Nonetheless, as he notes explicitly in his request, he's playing his US Congress card, especially with all those new Republicans now seated.  But if Obama caves on this - and especially, if he does so with no meaningful give-back from Netanyahu - he will be reviled in the CIA.

My sense is that a majority of Americans will not support the release of a man who was, after all, sent to prison for life because he was a traitor whose actions did huge damage to the US intelligence establishment.  And if Obama does relent, he will be seen, not as magnanimous, but as even more pusillanimous than so many have already pegged him.

Lindsey Graham's Colossally Bad Idea

Graham told NBC's "Meet the Press" that, in his opinion, the US ought to establish permanent bases in Afghanistan. (I'll be looking forward to input from Sens. Joe Lieberman and John McCain, the other members of a troika that seldom fails to speak as one.)

This is a colossally stupid idea.

• Maintaining such bases  would be hugely expensive.
• They would be a needless irritant to US relations with China, Russia, and Iran.
• They would be targets for local resistance across the region.

Graham must be thinking that Afghanistan can be set up as an American protectorate a la Japan and Germany after World War II.  No chance.

US Concern over Pakistani Militants' Disappearances

The Obama administration is expressing alarm over reports that thousands of political separatists and captured Taliban insurgents have disappeared into the hands of Pakistan’s police and security forces, and that some may have been tortured or killed.

Thus reports the New York Times' Eric Schmitt.  Yet not even a hint of the irony and hypocrisy here about the "concerns" expressed by a country that engaged in the same practices for years, and that, under Obama, continues to wage a legal battle to preserve such prerogatives.

Is Israel a Racist Country

Excellent essay in Haaretz, by Anshel Pfeffer, who concludes:

Israel, for all its faults, is not a predominantly racist or Apartheid-like country. But there has been a continuing failure of Israeli society as a whole to recognize victimhood in others; to understand that there were other genocides in the 20th century that need commemorating other than the Holocaust; that while an entire nation hopes to see Gilad Shalit returned to his family, there are 10,000 mothers on the other side who see their imprisoned sons as fighters and not murderers; and to realize that no amount of PR can ever change the impression made by 43 years of occupation of another people. These demons have been unleashed on our streets.

On Iraq's New Government

Hayder al-Khoei, writing for Juan Cole's Informed Comment blog,

It is naïve to presume the next Iraqi government can make huge strides in reconciliation and work coherently as a power-sharing body. Its very existence is proof that self-centred party agendas supersede all considerations of integrity, equality and justice that all the parties claimed to champion prior to elections. However, if there are politicians in the next government who still have a conscience, they must convince all Iraqis that the political process is still the most attractive option.

But inclusion is not merely enough. Power sharing means nothing when it is not underpinned by constitutional conventions that seek to combat corruption and crime with a neutral, objective and non-sectarian agenda. Maliki must understand that a token ministry here and there is not going to solve the crisis. This shrewd move may very well keep him in power for the next 4 years, but it isn’t going to solve the corrupt political system in Iraq.

Expecting lots of happy talk from Mr. Obama's Bunch about how Iraq's new government will point the way to "success" blah blah blah.  Don't fall for it.  Nuri al-Maliki now presides over a government that has been cobbled together from diverse parties with little if any shared agenda, that continues to face the threat of extreme and frequent violence from "al-Qaeda," and that has yet to deal with festering problems in the north.

Geert Wilders' support for Israel's Colonization of the West Bank

Robert Mackey reports in the NY Times.  Says Geert Wilders, prominent Dutch right-wing advocate of Europe's need to defend itself against the "Muslim peril":

 “Our culture is based on Christianity, Judaism and humanism and [the Israelis] are fighting our fight.” . . .   “If Jerusalem falls, Amsterdam and New York will be next.”

Other right-wing anti-immigrant European politicos have been touring Israel, many of them representing parties with well-documented anti-Semitic , even Neo-Nazi roots.  As reported by Haaretz's Adar Primor (in an article titled "The unholy alliance between Israel's Right and Europe's anti-Semites"):

 the brightest jewel in this racist crown – Heinz-Christian Strache, leader of Austria’s Freedom Party. If Jorg Haider was “Hitler’s spiritual grandson,” then Strache is his extremely illegitimate great-grandson. His grandfather was in the Waffen-SS, and his father served in the Wehrmacht. As a university student, Strache belonged to an extremist organization from which Jews were banned, hung out with neo-Nazis and participated in paramilitary exercises with them.

Yet one of the leaders of the Settlement movement welcomes support from such a dubious source.

No skinhead cares what [Anti-Defamation League Chairman] Abe Foxman has to say, but if [right-winger leaders like] Filip Dewinter and Heinz-Christian Strache make these statements they will have real impact. For that reason I am considering appearing with them in their countries for pro-Israel rallies. I think that it is worth the risk of being defamed by Haaretz and the like if we can cause a shift in the European nationalist movements, moving them away from their traditional Jew-hatred and bringing them closer to appreciation of Zionism. I don’t think that I am naive to feel that this is a revolutionary opportunity.

It boggles the mind - and, one might conclude, undermines the credibility of the settler movement - when it aligns itself with parties that (as Mackey notes) once cooperated with the Nazi regime in rounding up Jews to be sent to death camps.

On the other hand, this is hardly the first time that the settler movement has embraced the support of non-Jewish groups whose interests by no means coincide with that of most Jews.  Thousands of Christian Zionists support the Israeli colonization of the West Bank in the hope that (as "prophesied" in the Bible) the Jewish people will succeed in building the Third Temple in Jerusalem, which is a requirement for the "End of Days" and the Second Coming of Jesus.  At that time, of course, according to "prophesy," the Jews will be swept away.

Invitation to a Coup - or a Revolution - in Pakistan

The NY Times (in a piece co-authored by Dexter Filkins) is reporting that "Senior American military commanders in Afghanistan are pushing for an expanded campaign of Special Operations ground raids across the border into Pakistan’s tribal areas."  As the NYT further notes, this is "a risky strategy reflecting the growing frustration with Pakistan’s efforts to root out militants there."  The AP is now reporting "NATO's deputy chief of communications, U.S. Rear Adm. Gregory Smith, said there was no truth to a report published in The New York Times." - and a "senior US defense official" confirms this.

They're circling the wagons.

And as for this possible move being "risky"?  How about dangerous - and bloody stupid?!

As usual, the military seems to be all about "success" in "the mission" - which now means killing as many "bad guys" as possible, rack up higher scores, and thereby demonstrate that they (= David Petraeus, the would-be maharajah of Afpak) can achieve "victory" if only Obama backs off the impending start of the withdrawal of US forces from Afghanistan.  Underpinning all of this, of course, is the neocon-inspired doctrine that in the defense of our "freedoms" and the promotion of the "American way," the trashing of the domestic economy and infrastructure cannot be an obstacle.

But the senior military commanders seem to be oblivious to the possible long-term (or even shorter-term?) consequences of such an expanded campaign.  Such a significant ramping-up of US/NATO (= let's face it, essentially US) incursions into Pakistan - especially by Special Forces conducting surprise night-raid operations - would be viewed by an already angry Pakistani population as a huge, completely unacceptable affront to their country, as both a sovereign nation and a predominantly Muslim one.  Mr. Zardari's civilian government is very weak and extremely unpopular as is.  Pakistan has a long history of military take-overs during times of internal conflict.  The army is the single most powerful institution  - and the current head of Pakistan's military, General Ashraf Kiyani, is arguably the single most powerful  leader in Pakistan today.  The advocates for Pakistani democracy cheered the earlier removal of General Pervez Musharraf.  But neither the US military, nor President Bush, were especially pleased to see Musharraf depart, and Pakistan's pro-democracy movements reviled Bush, and the US's hypocrisy, for that very reason.  To see the civilian government toppled, and replaced by a new military dictatorship, would unquestionably arouse public, anti-American violence on a potentially massive scale.  The military would have to be called in to control it (which would divert them from the very kind of anti-al-Qaeda operations that the US has been pushing them so hard to do).

And the potential for an Islamist revolution in Pakistan as the eventual outcome is substantial.  If that were to happen, one of the US's - and Israel's - most nightmarish dreams would be realized: an Islamist, anti-US, anti-Zionist regime with an arsenal of nuclear weapons and systems with which to deliver them.

I pray that our "senior military commanders" think this through.

Wonderful Discussion of Zionism and the Right to Palestine

I recommend very highly this excellent post by Philip Weiss to his always-interesting blog, Mondoweiss, as well as the responses/discussion that follow.

Weiss's essential point has to do with the secular, colonialist outlook of Zionism's godfather, Theodor Herzl, from whose Complete Diaries he quotes.  As Weiss also notes, Herzl was an admirer of Cecil Rhodes, who did so much to establish British colonialism in Africa.  And interestingly, Weiss also notes, one of Herzl's correspondents, the US ambassador to the Ottoman empire, had written Herzl in 1899 to suggest Mesopotamia as a potential location for the new Jewish homeland.

With Dubya's Compliments

After he had to can WMDs as the rationale for his expedition to Iraq, Dubya and his neocon pals switched to setting up Iraq as a new model of democracy in what Condi Rice famously referred to as the "new Middle East."

Here's what Mr. Bush helped bestow upon Iraq.

Democracy marches on.  Be careful of what you wish for.